It seems that America's largest metropolitan areas aren't decreasing in size—at least not currently.
The latest figures from the Census Bureau, published on Thursday, indicate that both the New York and Chicago metropolitan areas have experienced growth over the last two consecutive years ending in June. In contrast, the population expansion for the Los Angeles region only occurred within the most recent year up until June. Despite this increase, these areas remain below their pre-pandemic sizes. Covid-19 pandemic , though not by as significant an amount as initially believed.
The significant change lies in the fact that the Census Bureau has recently revised its estimates of the immigrant population, substantially increasing the figures for recent years.
Rising immigration In major metropolitan areas that were experiencing decline, population losses were somewhat mitigated by both a reduced number of people relocating across the country and decreased birth rates.
Previous census data suggested that New York and Chicago experienced a decline in population for the year ending in June 2023. However, updated figures reveal that these two metropolitan regions actually gained residents over that timeframe, with their growth rates speeding up in the year ending in June 2024.
The stark change was particularly evident in the New York metropolitan area, which is the country's biggest. Despite experiencing a dip in population due to the pandemic, this region saw an increase of 1.1%, reaching 19.9 million residents as per the latest available data from the census. This growth includes a net addition of 213,000 individuals over the past year. Interestingly, the expansion wasn't limited to just the outskirts; even New York City witnessed a rise in its populace by 1%.
The regions of San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Detroit experienced an increase in growth rate in the latest reporting year when contrasted with the period ending in June 2023. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles area shifted from experiencing a decline in the previous timeframe to recording a modest rise.
The predictions were hinted at in the state estimates disclosed in December, indicating that the nation’s population had increased by approximately 1% over the past year, reaching around 340.1 million people. These numbers encompassed a significant growth. upward revision Regarding migration, the data released on Thursday breaks down previous estimates to provide more localized information at the county and metropolitan area levels.
In the year ending in June, immigrants made up 84% of the population increase due to declining birth rates. record lows Additionally, mortality rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels and are elevated due to an aging demographic.
Across the nation, counties that serve as the central hubs for the top 50 metropolitan areas saw an increase of 1.1% last year, equivalent to about 1.1 million new residents. Despite losing approximately 668,000 individuals to other parts of the country, these urban centers attracted more immigrants and experienced higher birth rates which contributed positively to their population growth. In contrast, the surrounding suburban regions within these large metros expanded even faster by 1.3%, also equating to roughly 1.1 million additional inhabitants. Smaller and mid-sized metropolitan county populations increased almost identically in percentage terms. Meanwhile, the least densely populated rural zones showed minimal but noticeable increases.
In the 25 most populous metropolitan areas, which house over 40% of the U.S. population, growth was recorded at 1%.
A significant portion of that growth appears unstable. Since the previous census estimates, southern border entries have decreased considerably due to policy alterations in both the U.S. and Mexico. This includes restrictions implemented under the Biden administration for individuals attempting asylum after entering the country unlawfully. Additionally, President Trump directed intensified raids as part of efforts to address this issue. illegal immigration .
The Census Bureau doesn’t distinguish between those in the U.S. illegally and those with legal status, including those seeking asylum or in temporary protected status.
However, immigration does not tell the entire narrative. Major urban centers have also managed to reduce the number of residents moving away to different regions within the country. Although the New York metropolitan area continued losing domestic migrants over the last year, this decline occurred at roughly half the rate observed in 2021 and 2022. Similarly, several other coastal metropolitan areas have experienced a deceleration in population decreases attributed to negative net domestic migration—the gap between those arriving from versus departing for other parts of the U.S.
In the meantime, regions in the Southeast and Texas that experienced a substantial surge of internal migration in 2021 and 2022 have seen this trend decelerate significantly over the last year. In metropolitan Austin, Texas, the rate of newcomers has decreased by roughly two-thirds compared to 2021, while in Nashville, Tennessee, it has dropped by nearly one-half.
Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy, stated that these updated figures indicate domestic migration is beginning to mirror pre-pandemic patterns once again. "We're seeing a gradual return to normalcy," he commented.
In the last year, Metro Miami saw a net loss of 101,000 residents to other parts of the country, which equates to approximately 1.6% of its total population. This shift has ended San Francisco's prolonged status as the metropolitan area with the highest domestic outmigration from among the largest metros. Miami area For many years, it has been losing residents to more affordable areas because of rising housing prices and increasing traffic congestion. However, a significant increase in immigration—a total of 213,000 newcomers over the last year—resulted in continued population growth in the Miami region.
These projections incorporate several major cities that comprise an entire county, providing insight into urban-specific patterns which the Census Bureau plans to elaborate upon later this year. Philadelphia transitioned from experiencing declines recently to seeing modest increases over the last twelve months. Meanwhile, San Francisco expanded its growth trend that restarted in 2023; however, its overall populace still stands at approximately 94% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Washington, D.C., which added 31,000 people, has offset initial pandemic-related declines and now stands at over 702,000—a growth of 2%. However, uncertainties around federal budget constraints and employment prospects cast shadows on its outlook. Nearby Baltimore experienced a modest increase as well.
One drawback of growth is seen in New York where the metropolitan area experienced a rise in median rent by 5.8%, from January 2024 to January 2025, as reported by Realtor.com. This marks the highest rate of increase across the top 50 largest metro regions. It's worth noting that News Corp, which owns The Wall Street Journal, also runs Realtor.com.
Eric Finnigan, who serves as the vice president of demographic research at John Burns—a real estate research and consultancy company—stated that cities such as New York, Boston, and Philadelphia experienced minimal apartment building activity throughout and following the pandemic.
He stated that any rise in demand within those markets will significantly affect rental prices.
Send your message to Paul Overberg. paul.overberg@wsj.com , Konrad Putzier at konrad.putzier@wsj.com and Max Rust at max.rust@wsj.com
Post a Comment