This week, the Sudanese Armed Forces have accelerated their efforts to reclaim Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). However, the broader threat posed by this conflict—now entering its third year—is the potential impact on official trade with nations like Kenya. Historically, Kenya has been the largest exporter of tea to Khartoum among all countries in the Horn of Africa.
Sudan had previously prohibited Kenyan products in response to Nairobi's choice to accommodate gatherings of the RSF and associated groups within its territory, alleging that Nairobi was interfering politically.
However, stakeholders noted that Kenya’s tea could potentially still enter the market through illicit channels since different conflicting groups currently hold power within the nation. "Given Sudan's decision to prohibit trading tea with Kenya, we anticipate a rise in illegal smuggling activities because Kenyan tea continues to rank among the finest qualities globally," stated George Omuga, CEO of the East Africa Tea Trade Association (EATTA).
"Based on our records, there has been an uptick in tea consumption in both South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which raises concerns about certain merchants exploiting this scenario to import contraband tea into these regions. While as an organization, we do not oversee such operations, the surge in tea demand positively impacts our export figures; however, it may harm the reputation of the Kenyan tea brand."
Throughout the ongoing conflicts, Kenya's legal tea exports to Sudan were already experiencing declines well ahead of last week’s prohibition measures. Over the previous year, tea shipments to Sudan decreased by twelve percent—from 12,034,300 kilograms down to 10,567,780 kilograms—owing to hostilities, according to statistics provided by the Tea Board of Kenya (TBK). This decline worries industry players who fear potential losses at the hands of smugglers impacting Kenya’s esteemed status in global markets.
Mr. Omuga stated that conflict-ridden nations kept purchasing minimal amounts at the auction, whereas their neighboring countries experienced a substantial rise in the demand for tea.
In 2024, the UAE purchased 30.50 million kilograms of tea valued at $78,901,329. Additionally, South Sudan is witnessing rapid growth as a burgeoning marketplace for Kenyan tea.
The TBK's Kenya Tea Industry Performance Report for 2024 indicates enhanced exports to both established and new markets including Kazakhstan, Somalia, Switzerland, Oman, Nigeria, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, the United States, Germany, South Africa, and Japan.
The Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture, Mutahi Kagwe, mentioned that even with the disputes in crucial markets, domestic consumers in these nations continued to show interest. He stated, "[In] Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and Chad, the tea trade could face additional challenges this year unless the conflicts subside. It’s essential that we devise strategies to reclaim our position in these markets, which we are currently pursuing through diplomatic channels," according to Mr. Kagwe.
One of the largest buyers of Kenyan tea is Sudan, ranking among the top ten markets globally. A conflict could lead to reduced exports to this country, thereby impacting overall trade relationships.
The report identifies Chad as an important growing marketplace for direct imports from Kenya. Before the conflict began in Sudan, this landlocked nation used to receive goods like tea through Sudan. However, with the disruption of trade routes coming from Sudan, Chad has redirected its imports via alternate pathways through Nigeria and Cameroon, according to the report.
Owing to its high quality, Kenyan tea has seen strong demand, with the leading ten export destinations—mostly traditional markets for Kenyan tea—accounting for 81 percent of the product's total export volume.
In comparison to 2023, there was an upsurge in exports to traditional market areas. Egypt saw the most significant rise, with an additional export volume of 21.01 million kilos. This was trailed by India with an increment of 11.86 million kilos, and then the UK which noted an addition of 11.29 million kilos.
Following the resurgence of assaults by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, tea merchants anticipate additional hold-ups in the delivery of their teas, potentially impacting upcoming transactions.
Shipping companies are halting their services along this route and switching to an alternate transshipment path around South Africa’s southernmost point. This new route is considerably longer and more expensive for shipments departing from the Port of Mombasa. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. Syndigate.info ).
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