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What's Next for the SNP? Shedding the Branchorm Shadow

Nicola Sturgeon naturally expresses relief at no longer being the subject of a police inquiry.

Many in the SNP will resonate with this sentiment.

This has proven to be a detrimental time for the party, with high-ranking members acknowledging that this phase played a role in its downfall during last year's general election.

Ms Sturgeon states she's prepared to proceed with her personal journey, yet will her party manage to follow suit and restore its political standing?

She characterized Operation Branchform as a cloud that has loomed over her for many years, and this holds true for her party as well.

Today remains challenging as the Crown continues to pursue embezzlement charges against her spouse, Peter Murrell. He played a crucial role in managing the SNP’s operations for two decades.

As the top leader, he was instrumental in reshaping it into a powerhouse for winning elections.

However, he isn't as widely recognized as Ms. Sturgeon. She is perhaps the most renowned woman in Scotland, closely associated with her political party.

In February 2023, Ms. Sturgeon stepped down, and the Branchform inquiry progressed swiftly as Humza Yousaf attempted to establish himself following her departure.

Whenever he attempted to outline his leadership through events or statements, new developments in Operation Branchform seemed to emerge promptly.

This indicated that the public primarily encountered Mr. Yousaf as the individual being approached unexpectedly by journalists, stating comments such as "naturally I am astonished that one of my coworkers has been detained."

The optics were equally terrible when considering the installation of a blue police tent outside Mr. Murrell and Ms. Sturgeon’s residence, along with law enforcement officials exiting the party headquarters with numerous boxes in hand.

By the way, the police will always stand behind their choice to use that well-known tent.

Surrounded by a crowded suburban street filled with photographers and camera crews, they believed it was their responsibility to protect the confidentiality of their delicate work.

Regardless, key members of the party recognize that the probe played a role in the significant setbacks they experienced during the 2024 general election.

Mr Yousaf's self-inflicted exit from office, via a row with the Greens, was another.

Moreover, there was the nationwide scenario where Labour ousted the Conservatives from power.

However, these situations have also offered an opportunity for a fresh start with John Swinney.

He maintained a very strong political and personal relationship with Ms Sturgeon. With his roles as both the SNP leader and first minister, he likely sees Thursday's development as an opportunity to progress forward.

He has started to restore the SNP's standing in the opinion polls, aided by Labour's difficulties in adjusting to governance in Westminster.

It has aided him that he hasn’t been burdened with constant reports from Operation Branchform like his predecessor was. Mr. Swinney has had a better opportunity to set the agenda on his own terms.

He is now looking forward to entering the 2026 Scottish election campaign free from persistent queries regarding ongoing police investigations. Ms. Sturgeon isn’t even up for candidacy.

While being extremely cautious about legality, he’s beginning to recast this issue as not just something that might have occurred within the SNP but rather something that may have been done to the party.

Over its many years in power, the SNP has shown remarkable skill at reinventing itself.

From a party content to make fiscal agreements with the Conservatives under Alex Salmond, to one aligned with the leftist Greens under Ms Sturgeon.

Mr Swinney will aim to create a fresh identity following Sturgeon, with the intention of maintaining his influence next year.

Today served as a reminder that, despite an ongoing investigation lasting four years, events can still progress rapidly at times.

A little more than a week ago, Nicola Sturgeon announced her plans to resign from Holyrood in the coming year, thus concluding a 27-year era in her political journey.

On Tuesday, she unveiled the cover and title of her memoirs, fulfilling her long-held aspiration to become an author.

The knowledge that she can anticipate the publication date without the shadow of this investigation looming over her will bring immense relief.

However, her estranged husband still has some distance to cover, which similarly affects his political party.

The charges against Mr. Murrell will proceed, carrying substantial importance—allegations of embezzlement against the head of the governing party constitute a grave matter.

His relationship with Ms Sturgeon has ended, but she will undoubtedly continue to feel the effects of this situation—particularly because there might be a trial where she could potentially be summoned as a witness.

Only time will tell how things progress with this case. Mr. Murrell hasn’t entered any pleas or statements as of now, which wouldn’t typically be required at his current juncture in the legal proceedings.

In theory, the Crown has up to 18 months to advance the case to the next phase, making it quite likely that this could extend past the Holyrood elections scheduled for next May.

First Minister Sturgeon is eagerly anticipating a fresh start. However, it could take several months or perhaps even years until the final page is turned on Operation Branchform.

  • Sturgeon feels relieved and justified as police inquiry concludes
  • The Unfolding of the SNP Finances Controversy
  • Peter Murrell: Half of Scotland's dynamic duo
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