A Japanese missile deployment In Kyushu, actions might provoke irritation from China and North Korea, yet most experts believe this wouldn’t significantly hinder the ongoing enhancements in ties between Tokyo and Beijing.
According to reports from government sources published by the Japanese news agency Kyodo last week, Tokyo is considering deploying advanced long-range missiles—possibly an improved variant of Japan’s Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile—on the southern island of Kyushu close to the East China Sea. This move would enable targeting areas in North Korea as well as mainland China.
The rollout, set to start in March, aims to strengthen Japan’s Nansei archipelago, as stated in the report. This area holds significant strategic importance because of its closeness to Taiwan.
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Concerns have been raised that this deployment might jeopardize the recently improved relationship between Beijing and Tokyo. However, diplomatic analysts believe this outcome is improbable because Japan’s shift towards missiles aligns with their previously stated defense objectives and the broader aim of enhancing mutual ties.
Wang Guangtao, an associate professor at Fudan University’s Center for Japanese Studies, stated that the timing of the announcement was “an effort to gauge China’s limits concerning regional security matters.”
Japan's recent actions are in line with the objectives detailed in Tokyo’s trio of strategic papers from 2022 aimed at enhancing retaliatory capabilities. Although the timing of this announcement was considered “sensitive,” these steps were not particularly unexpected for China, as stated by Wang.
"The implementation strategy might provoke a reaction from China. Nonetheless, the general tendency toward bettering ties between China and Japan is not expected to be substantially changed by this event," he noted.
Yoichiro Sato, a professor specializing in Asian Pacific Studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, asserts that the newly developed Japanese missiles have the capability to target North Korea's missile installations and China’s medium-range missile sites near the coastline. However, these missiles wouldn’t be able to hit China’s long-range nuclear weapons located deeper within the country.
Sato stated that Japan’s missiles are intended solely for limited retaliatory actions following offensive missile attacks by North Korea or China against Japan.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at US-based think tank Rand Corporation, said the missiles would likely be deployed against Chinese naval vessels that came within their 1,000km (620-mile) range in the event of a military conflict.
Heath mentioned that the Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile is a land-based anti-ship weapon utilizing GPS guidance along with advanced radar systems for target acquisition.
Tokyo is increasingly concerned about Beijing’s rising military strength, which has led Japan to enhance its own defense capacities. Starting in 2022, the country has allocated 43 trillion yen (approximately US$287.2 billion) towards a five-year strategy for expanding its defenses. This initiative aims to boost defense spending to 2% of its gross domestic product, an increase from slightly above 1% previously.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was scheduled to travel to Tokyo later this week, where he plans to hold joint discussions with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, as well as participate in individual sessions of the foreign ministers' meeting.
The foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated on Wednesday that Beijing wished for Tokyo to "take practical measures" and "clear obstacles" to enhance mutual relations between the two countries.
Lian Degui, who leads the Centre for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, stated that the missile deployment is among multiple hurdles between Beijing and Tokyo, underscoring the necessity for bilateral talks.
"The upcoming meeting between Wang and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya might provide an excellent chance for both Beijing and Tokyo to share their viewpoints and identify shared interests," Lian stated.
Given the improving diplomatic relations, China could opt to refrain from harshly condemning the deployment. Instead, the matter might be addressed with “a composed statement expressing mild disapproval,” according to suggestions made by Sato from Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University.
Masashi Murano, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Japan Chair, noted that this topic could come up during the Japan-China foreign ministers' meeting. However, he believes it is improbable that the Japanese government would alter its stance, nor should they consider doing so.
Murano stated that there is only a restricted link between the enhancement of diplomatic ties between the two countries and the operations conducted by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) along with maritime law enforcement entities in the East China Sea, noting that “this remains true even now.”
He said that in 2020, for example, China's military remained active in the East China Sea as both nations were preparing for the Chinese president's state visit to Japan.
In 2022, when updating its national defense strategy, Tokyo committed to obtaining strike capabilities designed for traditional counterforce operations—or denial measures—with an extended reach compared to previous capacities, according to Murano.
Even with ongoing disputes regarding territory and historical grievances from World War II, both Japan and China seem to be mending some rifts recently. This shift may partly be due to former US President Donald Trump’s unclear stance on American alliances.
Previously, Trump showed discontent with the current status of US-Japanese relations and called on Tokyo to contribute more financially towards its defense.
Heath mentioned that Beijing could view Tokyo's missile deployment as an enhancement of Japan’s self-defense abilities, which would reflect uncertainties regarding the dependability of U.S. security assurances.
Murano also pointed out that the current equilibrium in theater strike capabilities significantly tilted towards China rather than Japan. This imbalance provided China with a chance to possibly gain a strategic military edge in the area through preemptive action, thus introducing a "risk element."
"Strengthening Japan's missile capabilities would help to close this window and reinforce stability," he said.
Lian from Shanghai International Studies University pointed out that Japan's efforts to enhance its retaliatory strike abilities were a result of cooperation with its alliance partner, referencing the agreement made last year for Japan to purchase 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S.
"Japan continues to lag significantly behind China when it comes to sophisticated military hardware... The best approach would be to foster diplomatic dialogue aimed at eradicating mutual animosity instead of participating in an arms race," argued Lian.
According to the Kyodo report, the missiles will not be stationed in Okinawa Prefecture—a region within the southwestern islands, which is nearer to Taiwan than Kyushu—due to worries that this might escalate tensions with Beijing.
However, Wang from Fudan University proposed that additional elements could also be at play.
He stated that Japan might consider Kyushu as a preferable location for deploying missiles because of various reasons such as technical and geographic advantages, along with better domestic supply chain logistics.
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