China's Rise and America's Retreat: A New Global Empire Emerges

In the initial segment of a two-part commentary crafted for next week’s Boao Forum, John Keane—a politics professor from the University of Sydney—presents an unconventional analysis of the worldwide upheaval sparked by the Trump administration. According to him, MAGA is not about reclaiming America’s position as the leading global power; instead, it signals an empire in decline, facing off against a revitalized China—an adversary posing its greatest economic, diplomatic, and geopolitical challenge since the latter part of the 18th century.

An ancient Chinese adage goes: "When the winds of change blow, some construct barriers while others erect windmills." Today’s tumultuous era resonates with this wisdom as we witness dramatic divisions—on one side, the rise of a formidable new Chinese empire unlike anything seen before in world history; on the other, the insular isolation and seclusion of what was once a dominant global superpower. United States .

Understanding these globally influential forces ought to be essential for anyone who thinks critically; however, this endeavor is impeded by considerable misinformation, exaggeration, propaganda, and oddly enough, broad agreement with the notion that the US president is Donald Trump
The teachings about America’s rejuvenation and supremacy hold some truth. Indeed, those who support or observe Trump's perspective on America's challenging position globally anticipate turbulent times ahead for the world. Even when skeptical or openly critical of President Trump's statements—such as his peculiar directive concerning “windmills”—they often accept his belief that the U.S., despite experiencing a downturn recently, remains the predominant force worldwide. They attribute this enduring status to the bold guidance provided by the incoming Trump administration.
Portrayed as urgent reports tailored for viewers eager to comprehend an era marked by significant tension, Trump's electoral success is depicted just as he wishes: as evidence of the fervor aimed at reversing American decline. This event marks the dawn (as he boasted during his 2025 inaugural address) of a magnificent new "Golden Age," wherein the United States stands poised on the brink of what could become "the four best years in American history." During these transformative moments, the nation aims to demonstrate unequivocally its unrivaled strength and prestige across the globe.

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A drawback of this perspective is its failure to recognize how the U.S. has frittered away its global dominance over the last forty years and financed the ascension of its primary competitor. The decline of America did not begin recently. Ignore those who pander later on. Vladimir Putin
Consider Russia’s situation. Reflect on the failed military campaigns, the conflicts lost, the flawed diplomacy akin to Blinken’s approach, and the series of falsehoods spread. Also consider their blatant disregard for what they call the “rule-based international order,” leading to ridicule and mockery due to a declining version of U.S.-style democratic governance. Now imagine the remarkable twist of history: how America’s diplomatic acknowledgment of the People's Republic of China, along with substantial support through resources and aid during significant transformations, led to China reclaiming its status as a major player globally after enduring nearly two hundred years of oppression.
As a result, thanks largely to actions taken by the United States, China can now be viewed not just as another country or superpower but rather as an emerging empire. By definition, an empire encompasses extensive political, economic, administrative, cultural, and military influence extending well past national boundaries. According to my detailed analysis in *China’s Galactic Empire* (2024), China is swiftly developing into such an entity with worldwide outreach. This nascent empire poses a powerful challenge to American dominance and represents a stronger competitor compared to the former Soviet Union. In reality, the emergent Chinese empire stands out as the gravest geopolitical adversary the U.S. has encountered since establishing itself as a republic around the end of the 18th century.

A new empire

Chinese windmill shadows whirl across America’s walls, yet this reality goes unnoticed amidst the disparaging remarks and grim predictions propagated by MAGA supporters. Their stance is rooted in orientalist ignorance and a refusal to acknowledge China’s expansionist goals, thus undermining their conviction in American exceptionalism. Let us then examine some crucial pieces of evidence.

When ranked by total assets, the four largest banks globally are Chinese. China has surpassed institutions like the World Bank. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to grow into the biggest worldwide lender supported by its domestic financial service entities like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank China is leading a worldwide shift away from the current global financial system dominated by the US dollar and its rentier finance capitalist model. In mid-2023, the renminbi surpassed the US dollar for the first time in China’s cross-border transactions. By 2024, with a substantial trade surplus close to $1 trillion—the last such American surplus was recorded in 1975—China has become both the top trader globally and holds ownership of roughly half the world's patents.

Even with attempts led by the United States to reduce economic ties with China through imposing tariffs, refusing their goods and services, and prohibiting the trade and shipment of new communication devices, Huawei , ZTE And other Chinese firms, China's economy — unlike the previous one Soviet Union - represents an open political system where large corporations intertwine with governmental entities. This emerging form of state capitalism draws significant upstream investments from prominent international firms like Airbus , Samsung , Toyota German chemical conglomerate BASF along with Singapore’s OCBC Bank and lithium-ion battery producer Durapower Holdings were mentioned. In the meantime, China manufactures about one-third of global manufactured products, surpassing the United States. Japan , Germany , South Korea and Britain combined. China is the European Union 's and India is the primary trading partner for goods. It also leads as both an investor and trader within the globe’s largest free-trade zone. Africa ; and in Latin America, for the first time in 200 years since gaining independence from the Spanish Empire and effectively relying economically and militarily on the United States, nations like Chile , Peru , Ecuador , Uruguay and Colombia are increasingly moving closer to China.

Significant global changes are occurring in China concerning daily living conditions. Despite once having life expectancies similar to Western countries from a hundred years ago, China’s life expectancy has dramatically increased—from 51 years in 1962 to 78.6 years as of 2022—according to figures provided by the World Bank. This surpasses the United States' decreasing trend in healthy life expectancy at birth. The country's burgeoning middle class, which numbers around 400 million people, benefits greatly from this progress toward becoming what they call an economically comfortable society. For these individuals, international travel and consumption have become integral parts of their lifestyle.
Loyalty to the established order drives many Chinese citizens who dream about owning homes, cars, and accumulating wealth; regular shoppers adept at staying out of trouble often humorously say “follow the Party line, yet heed your spouse.” Their societal importance has grown due partly to extensive study abroad programs and substantial government funding into advanced educational initiatives over recent years—a tenfold rise within just twenty years. Currently, China leads globally in producing science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) graduates, outnumbering outputs not only from India but also exceeding those produced annually by both the U.S., Japan, and Germany combined. France , Italy , Britain and Canada combined.

A point not to be dismissed is a matter of significant gravity: the role of the People's Liberation Army and its approach to militarized peace. As the world's most extensive standing army, comprising two million personnel supported by a growing stockpile of nuclear weapons, more submarines than any other nation, the planet’s biggest amphibious warfare vessel, and advanced military equipment, the PLA plays a crucial part. Its involvement United Nations peacekeeping operations. In Libya , Yemen and Sudan , the PLA has already honed the challenging military skills required for evacuating citizens from conflict areas. This capability has been bolstered by China’s resolution of disagreements with neighboring countries. including India The PLA’s approach to peaceful militarization is supported by an extensive military-industrial-aerospace sector, encompassing large corporations like the China North Industries Group Corporation and others. China Aviation Industry Corporation It is bolstered by ambitions for space power, significant dependence on astute diplomatic strategies, and a dedication to an innovative and powerful approach to warfare. As the Chinese proverb suggests, forcibly plucked melons do not ripen properly. According to the People's Liberation Army’s philosophy, triumph in conflict requires restraint, patience, and the capacity and readiness to bide one's time (wuwei, often interpreted as 'non-action'). Wise leaders avoid hasty military engagements. Victories are achieved—or prevented—by cunningly outmaneuvering adversaries through intimidation or attrition without necessarily resorting to combat.

Imperial resilience

The signs of China’s increasing global influence are indisputably evident. Its exceptional sources of strength are also quite apparent.

At home, the emerging empire’s governmental structure does not resemble the simplistic and volatile systems described as "autocratic," "authoritarian," or "totalitarian," as often asserted by Maga supporters and experts alike. Communist Party has long been cultivating sophisticated, resilient mechanisms for governance and what its leaders refer to as a "functioning democracy." Within the core regions of the empire, the administration operates under a single-party "shadow democracy" tailored with Chinese attributes. This political framework combines centralized authority with anticorruption measures, grassroots tribunals, predictive monitoring systems, and experimental checks and balances. Overseas, this approach is supported by major telecom corporations like Tencent And like Huawei, this emerging Chinese empire exhibits post-territorial characteristics. As the initial global empire conceived during the era of digital networking, China avoids the arrogance often seen in early modern European empires. These earlier powers boldly seized territories and maritime pathways, forcibly amalgamating numerous groups with distinct languages and cultures into defined nation-states, all while relying heavily on central capitals both domestically and within their colonial outposts. Instead, China’s expansion takes a different path. state-owned corporations And rather than imposing restrictions, governing bodies favor unlimited exchanges, corridor openings, open frontiers, and extensive trade. Outside its boundaries, Chinese leaders encourage swift and unhindered circulation of funds, commodities, and services, alongside supporting United Nations organizations and establishing fresh transnational entities like Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation .

Here’s what matters: China isn’t your typical land-grabbing empire or a seafaring nation driven solely by territorial expansion. Instead, it focuses on controlling financial currents, disseminating advanced information technology, and tapping into international markets for its cost-effective products and services. The country links urban centers with rural areas through state-of-the-art transportation infrastructures like bullet trains, modern airports, and sea channels. Additionally, it constructs extensive logistical nodes globally—integrating airfields, railway lines, highways, freight harbors—to enhance the speed and precision of package deliveries via cutting-edge info-tech and robotic solutions. This includes expanding refrigerated supply chains for distributing food items, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines across continents. Driven largely by its reliance on interconnected digital communication frameworks, seamless movement rather than physical control defines the essence of this contemporary Chinese realm.

A peaking power?

Supporters of Maga, along with numerous Western politicians, diplomats, and journalists, overlook the various sources of strength within this context. Instead, they optimistically dismiss the idea with overused phrases suggesting that the emergence of modern China will soon lead to its downfall. Followers of Trump particularly emphasize talk of China’s “growth” and “spread,” labeling it as an “existential challenge” to the West. Yet, simultaneously, they forecast that this burgeoning Chinese power structure will rapidly disintegrate due to factors like falling fertility rates, increasing longevity, issues in the property market, high levels of joblessness among young people, reliance on export-driven economies, environmental degradation, and governmental misconduct.

Certain supporters of the MAGA ideology reconcile conflicting ideas by characterizing China as a "power in decline." They argue that since China has risen, it poses significant threats domestically and internationally. This rise is supported by domestic oppression, resource acquisition tactics, economic penalties, military incursions, and various forms of external aggression. According to this view, the solution lies in strengthening military might under U.S. leadership, displaying assertiveness through rhetoric and negotiation strategies, always maintaining an unyielding gaze towards China. Amidst these challenges, proponents suggest that the United States, being Earth’s “foremost force for good,” should leverage its strengths and assets more aggressively. In essence, they believe prideful dominance will triumph over adversity.

Post-imperial denial

It could very well be that the youthful yet robust Chinese Empire unexpectedly encounters sudden obstacles and unexpected jolts. Should this occur, its premature end would inevitably bring misfortune not only to itself but also globally, including to the United States. This eventuality could sever global supply chains. It might undermine UN peacekeeping efforts, leading to stagnation within an organization where China currently contributes the most funds. Additionally, a devastating internal conflict in central regions of China could arise. Millions seeking refuge might flood neighboring areas, causing regional instability as they cross national boundaries in pursuit of security.

No one can yet determine the likelihood of such outcomes or predict the practical implications for the globe should China’s too-big-to-fail status falter. Instead, we ought to focus on another aspect of this situation and highlight the critical oversight present in the MAGA worldview: their irrational reluctance to acknowledge that the American empire is ensnared in the same long-term decline dynamic favoring a surprisingly tenacious Chinese global empire.

What are the signs of an extended period of American decline? The most apparent indicators include economic difficulties challenging U.S. dominance. China’s increasing prominence in areas like global investments, international trade, and manufacturing stands out prominently. AI The influence of digital technology is indisputable. Similarly threatening to U.S. economic dominance is China’s push to dismantle the dollar-centric system by internationalizing the renminbi via its national banks, currency swaps, gold reserves, a novel intercontinental payment platform, and a government-controlled electronic currency.

Fans of Maga and U.S. officials ought to be concerned about these economic developments, yet significant hurdles also lie ahead for the American empire. One key issue is legitimacy. As historians remind us, successful empires typically seek to mask their ambitions by persuading both domestic audiences and foreign entities that their influence serves the greater good. These powers strive to imprint themselves deeply into the lives of those affected from afar.

The leadership of China’s Communist Party understands this deeply; they view telling the nation's narrative effectively as an exceptionally critical strategic endeavor. It is noteworthy how the burgeoning Chinese sphere defies confinement within one overarching ideological framework. The symbols utilized by party representatives, envoys, and media professionals to legitimize the global projection of Chinese influence exhibit a multifaceted "yin-yang" characteristic. Much emphasis is placed on practical discourse centered around stability, economic growth, GDP figures, wealth accumulation, and prosperity.
However, alongside these pragmatic assertions, Communist Party authorities frequently invoke core beliefs like “harmonious society,” adherence to Confucian ethics, implementation of rule-based governance, democratization at an international level, ecological civilization, and reverence for ancient Chinese culture. Commonly used expressions encompass concepts such as territorial integrity and national pride. Peacekeeping efforts, anti-colonial sentiments, and defense against external adversaries form recurring themes in their rhetoric. Additionally, discussions often blend socialist ideals with elements of Marxism.

Regardless of opinions regarding the coherence or truthfulness of this colorful lexicon, China’s leadership and official propagandists keenly understand the risks associated with rigid ideology. Recognizing that sowing thorns leads to wounds, they aim to appear robust yet adaptable—benevolent enforcers serving “the people,” resolute advocates for world peace, economic prosperity, effective governance, and ecological sustainability. This deliberate obscurity allows China’s officials to navigate shifting political landscapes and confound adversaries. Consequently, their deceptive tactics—as the saying goes—enable them to move great weights with minimal effort. Unlike the United States, where international standing is diminishing sharply, such ambiguous reputation provides China with significant diplomatic agility and power across various global arenas.

The second part of this commentary will be released on Friday.

John Keane serves as a politics professor at the University of Sydney. His most recent publication is titled 'China's Galaxy Empire: Wealth, Power, War, and Peace in the New Chinese Century'.

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