Defence and diplomatic sources suggest that the proposed Western military deployment to Ukraine, currently under discussion in London, ought to be termed a "reassurance force" instead of a "peacekeeping force."
Presently known as the Multinational Force for Ukraine (MFU), this force would be deployed to the nation to solidify any truce and foster lasting trust within the country.
The emphasis will be on offering Ukraine aerial protection to ensure the safety of its airspace and maintaining a naval presence in the Black Sea to foster commerce.
Deploying what is referred to as "boots on the ground," likely consisting of around 20,000 troops, wouldn't constitute a force large enough to impose any peace agreement.
Rather, the forces from what was termed a "coalition of the willing" would probably be sent to safeguard urban areas, harbors, and key energy facilities.
One possibility under consideration is that the MFU may avoid operating in eastern Ukraine close to the frontline area with the aim of reassuring Russia that it does not pose an offensive threat.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have consistently stated that they will not accept any ceasefires if European and other international troops are stationed in Ukraine.
According to the reports, any international mission in Ukraine should not be considered a "peacekeeping force" and ought not to be referred to as one.
Peacekeeping forces – whether they fall under the jurisdiction of the United Nations or NATO – typically remain neutral, function with the agreement of all involved parties, and employ force solely for self-defense purposes. In contrast, the international military contingent currently proposed would clearly align itself with Ukraine’s interests, aiming primarily to prevent further aggressive actions from Russia.
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Currently, it is anticipated that the international forces present on the ground will not oversee any ceasefire. Instead, this responsibility would fall upon Ukrainian troops stationed at the frontlines along with Western monitoring equipment deployed in the sky and outer space.
Sources indicate that coalition forces would not serve as what’s known as a "tripwire force" – essentially a contingent too small to match the opposing side, aimed at deterring attacks without provoking further aggression – should Russia restart its invasion of Ukraine.
It is mentioned that the effect of an allied force of roughly 20,000 troops on the military situation would be relatively minor when contrasted with the total number of soldiers positioned along the frontline from both sides.
Ukraine boasts nearly a million military personnel, and Russia’s armed forces are considerably more extensive.
A significant part of Friday’s talks centers around finding ways for an international contingent to supply Ukraine with equipment it lacks, particularly aerial capabilities.
Therefore, talks will focus on identifying which nations can supply fighter jets to maintain security over Ukraine’s airspace during a truce.
Discussions will also focus on ensuring the safety of maritime traffic in the Black Sea. This might include two main aspects: determining the most effective methods to prevent mining of shipping channels and identifying the type of naval forces needed to maintain security within the sea.
The main ambiguity lies in whether the United States would offer any aerial, satellite, or intelligence support to any European forces deployed on the ground.
So far, the US has stated that it would not be ready to do so. to offer any military support as a safeguard.
For the time being, Europe’s approach is to cease requesting assistance from the United States and instead develop its strongest forces and capabilities to secure Ukraine’s safety moving forward. After ironing out the specifics, countries like the UK and France will assess whether the proposed European initiative is significant enough to potentially sway the U.S., prompting them to consider taking part in some capacity.
Of course, what all this planning relies on is the establishment of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.
Even though the US stays hopeful, many people in Ukraine still doubt whether Russia genuinely intends to cease the hostilities.
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