Congratulations to the remaining 12 teams competing for the women’s Division I national championship.
Hold on. We're talking about 68, correct?
It's not entirely accurate. While technically speaking, the women’s tournament includes 68 teams, historical data indicates that typically no more than 12 of them stand a real chance of emerging as the final victors in Tampa for the Final Four.
Since the NCAA women’s tournament was born in 1982, there have been 32 No. 1 seeds that have gone on to win the national championship, along with seven No. 2 seeds and three No. 3 seeds.
That concludes our search; no further seeds are needed.
Additionally, we should avoid considering Cinderella stories. In short, squads with over a few losses typically do not claim the women’s national title.
The only teams to win the national title with five or more losses on their record were Tennessee (28-6 in 1987), Tennessee (30-5 in 1991), Tennessee yet again (29-10 in 1997) and Texas A&M (33-5 in 2011).
So, using the less-than-five-losses theory — combined with the prerequisite of having to be a top-three seed — that leaves us with UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, TCU, USC and UConn.
However, this isn't about choosing a winner. It's about improving your chances of winning your bracket challenge. (And indeed, you should join a women’s bracket pool since A) it’s equally enjoyable as a men’s pool and B) provides an additional opportunity for you to appear knowledgeable.)
Here are some tips:
Why the rankings matter
We might as well call it now: UCLA, South Carolina, UConn, USC, and Texas will likely be the top five contenders for the national championship. Why? Because they're presently ranked first through fifth, respectively. AP Top 25 .
The sole teams to find themselves unranked within the top five of the concluding Associated Press Poll heading into the tournament—and these rankings might shift before the final preseason poll on Monday—were UConn (positioned at No. 6 back in 2004), Texas A&M (at No. 7 in 2011), Tennessee (also at No. 7 but in 1987), LSU (placed ninth in 2023), and once again Tennessee (this time listed as tenth in 1997).
Pick some upsets ...
Teams ranked from number 9 to 12 had a record of 1-15 in their Round of 64 matches the previous season. This isn’t ideal.
However, in both 2022 and 2023, these teams disrupted expectations. The squads seeded from number 9 to 12 secured seven victories in the Round of 64 during 2023, and they achieved eight such wins in that same stage in 2022.
A lot of chalk will dominate the upper levels. It's in the middle section where a savvy bracket participant can distinguish themselves from others in their group.
... but nothing too shocking happens
Harvard remains the sole 16-seed team to have defeated a top-ranked seed in the women’s tournament, which occurred back in 1998. In contrast, teams with seeds of No. 14 and No. 15 hold an overall record of zero wins against 240 losses in such contests.
In the past 20 tournaments, there have been only five occurrences where a No. 13 seed has defeated a No. 4 seed—Wright State in 2021, Marist in both 2012 and 2007, Liberty in 2005, and Middle Tennessee in 2004. Such upsets are uncommon. Anticipate this trend to continue.
Round of 64 winners
Spokane 1: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida State, North Carolina State, Harvard.
Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Indiana, Maryland, Green Bay, North Carolina, West Virginia, Duke, Vanderbilt.
Birmingham 3: Texas, Creighton, Ohio State, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Michigan, TCU, Louisville.
Spokane 4: USC, California, Kentucky, Fairfield, Florida Gulf Coast, Iowa, South Dakota State, UConn.
Round of 32 winners
Spokane 1: UCLA, Baylor, LSU, N.C. State.
Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Maryland, North Carolina, Duke.
Birmingham 3: Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, TCU.
Spokane 4: USC, Kentucky, Iowa, UConn.
Regional semifinal winners
Spokane 1: UCLA, LSU.
Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Duke.
Birmingham 3: Texas, University of Notre Dame.
Spokane 4: USC, UConn.
Regional final winners
If fit, LSU will pose a significant challenge. In this closely contested matchup, I'm leaning towards UCLA due to their previous encounter in the second round of March Madness last year.
Birmingham 2: South Carolina had an argument to be the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks will have to settle for a Final Four trip instead.
Birmingham 3: Texas is elite. But Notre Dame's guards are going to be too much. The Irish head to Tampa.
Spokane 4: USC versus UConn. A replay of a narrow two-point victory for USC in December. This time, UConn emerges as the winner.
The Final Four
UCLA versus UConn. Notre Dame against South Carolina. Oh, this is shaping up to be exciting.
UConn vs. South Carolina for the trophy.
In the end, Geno Auriemma, Paige Bueckers, and Azzi Fudd manage to prevail. Finally, the Huskies make their way back to the summit of women's collegiate basketball.
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AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness
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