In 2024, San Diego experienced a small increase in population despite losing tens of thousands of inhabitants who moved to different regions within the country. This growth was largely due to an uptick in immigration, which rose by 22% over the course of a single year.
Although the county experienced a natural increase of about 12,600 residents due to births during the period from July 2023 to July 2024, this was not sufficient to offset the roughly 24,000 individuals who departed the area compared to those who arrived. recently published census information indicates.
Compensating for that deficit—and even exceeding it—was the county’s acquisition of an additional 24,226 immigrants, including those who entered the country through legal and illegal means.
The current population of the county is 3,298,799, marking a rise of 0.4% from last year. This figure is slightly below the 3.3 million residents who lived here when the pandemic began about five years ago.
The newest population figures highlight an ongoing pattern throughout the state, particularly in bigger coastal areas, as well as nationwide, with immigration playing the key role in boosting populations for over 2,000 counties according to census authorities.
In California, almost half of the state’s 58 counties would have experienced population decreases if not for significant immigration, as indicated by an analysis conducted for the Union-Tribune by the non-profit organization Population Reference Bureau.
Los Angeles serves as a striking illustration of this phenomenon, managing to shift from experiencing a decline in population during 2023 to recording an increase in 2024. This turnaround can be attributed to over 100,000 new immigrants who arrived, effectively balancing out the almost equivalent number of residents departing the county.
Despite the contentious nature of immigration, experts suggest that areas such as San Diego will progressively depend on immigrants to address labor shortages as many residents depart and birthrates keep declining.
“If not for international immigrants who tend to arrive at young adult ages, we would be losing even more people of prime working age in California,” said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California who has been researching population trends for decades. “And so international migration is important to San Diego, to the coastal counties, and in general, to California because we are losing people to other states, and our birth rates are at all-time lows.
It’s crucial for the economy that we maintain a workforce capable of filling various roles, particularly within healthcare. This is especially true as our population ages. Should this influx of workers diminish, we would face an unprecedented demographic challenge that could destabilize us.
The increase in international migrants recorded last year was the most significant figure over the past fifteen years. In 2022, net migration jumped to 16,641 after dipping during the pandemic period. This number further climbed to 19,815 the subsequent year before hitting 24,226 in the latest tally.
This improvement is partly due to the Census Bureau adopting a new approach in this latest update, enabling them to offer a more accurate tally by capturing real-time variations in migration patterns. They have started integrating federal documentation into their usual survey methods, reducing reliance on potentially outdated information and allowing them to quickly reflect changes such as abrupt rises in refugee arrivals.
Before 2020, when the new method was not yet implemented, the annual net migration to San Diego varied between 4,600 and over 16,000 people each year, as reported by the Census Bureau’s yearly population estimates.
The U.S. Border Patrol data for San Diego typically supports the increasing migration numbers recorded by the Census Bureau.
The number of migrant arrests rose by 57%, increasing from 216,955 to 341,580, between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, at the San Diego border region, as reported by Customs and Border Protection. This surge occurred when pathways for illegal crossings moved away from Arizona towards California during the previous winter and spring seasons, making San Diego County the most active point for unauthorized entries into the U.S.
A significant number of these migrants were individuals seeking asylum who stayed near the border fence awaiting pickup and processing by the Border Patrol. Most were subsequently allowed entry into the U.S. community and provided specific immigration court appointments; numerous ones remained in San Diego temporarily—ranging from several days to a few weeks—before proceeding to their ultimate locations throughout the nation.
In recent times, due to the significant demand for temporary housing, Our Lady of Guadalupe Parish in Logan Heights initiated an additional migrant shelter away from their main site. Since October 2023, this facility has accommodated approximately 950 individuals. According to Reverend Brad Mills, who serves as the associate pastor at the parish, most migrants came from Venezuela, with others originating from countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, and Haiti. Additionally, they have provided refuge for asylum seekers hailing from the Middle East and Africa.
Approximately 65% of the migrants reported intending to remain in San Diego County upon arrival at the shelter, though it remains uncertain how many ultimately did so, according to Mills. The facility ceased operations earlier this month as the need for accommodation decreased; it served individuals who were "determining their subsequent move" since they lacked alternative options and opted initially to stay in San Diego, he further explained.
A significant number of these immigrants managed to secure work permits and usually landed positions in eateries, building sites, cleaning services, and landscaping.
Pedro Rios, who directs the American Friends Service Committee’s U.S./Mexico Border Program and interacts directly with immigrants at the border, noted that individuals arriving in the U.S. between 2023 and 2024 originated from various regions including Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. This influx has been somewhat surprising to him since historically most newcomers tend to transit through San Diego en route to different parts of the country rather than settling permanently in the area.
Many individuals whom I interacted with—specifically those recently arriving as migrants and requesting asylum—were not remaining in San Diego," Rios stated. "They were departing instead. They did not intend to stay in San Diego.
However, numerous individuals continue to remain, as demonstrated by the census data, indicating a significant reservoir of potentially essential employees for the future, explains Kristen Hill Maher, a political science professor at San Diego State University who specializes in U.S. immigration and border policies.
San Diego requires a significant amount of low-wage workers in fields like agriculture, construction, and hospitality," she stated. "A large number of rapidly expanding occupations both regionally and nationwide can be found within these areas, where immigrants make up a considerable portion of the workforce.
Some demographers and economists highlight that an ongoing issue for San Diego County continues to be the continuous departure of native-born residents from the area, with many seeking places where housing costs are lower. Although last year’s net departures didn't reach the high point of 39,315 recorded in 2021 during the pandemic, they still significantly surpass the number of individuals moving into different regions within California and across the nation throughout the previous decade.
People relocate due to various causes; however, most of our observed net loss stems from individuals moving for housing-related motives," stated Johnson. "Whether they're establishing their first home in an area with cheaper accommodation, aiming to purchase a property which isn't feasible within California’s price range, or seeking a bigger residence unaffordable here, these elements collectively push residents away from California overall, particularly from pricey coastal regions such as San Diego.
San Diego economist Ray Major argues that the continuous departure of residents, despite slowing down over the last year, must serve as an urgent wake-up call for both San Diego and the entire state to tackle the root causes behind this demographic decline.
The census data shows growth due to immigration, yet many individuals are still departing, and this doesn't seem entirely beneficial," Major stated. "Given issues like unaffordable or scarce housing, how should we address these challenges? A significant factor behind this issue is excessive governmental regulations making home construction costly for ordinary folks. This isn't exclusive to San Diego; it's an ongoing concern across all of California.
According to the Census Bureau, despite the ongoing departure of residents, the most recent data should be seen as an encouraging sign of the county’s rebound following the pandemic.
When examining the figures for internal migration within the country, one notices a decline," stated Kristie Wilder, who heads the demographic section at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Division. "Initially, it seems like many individuals are departing; however, San Diego County has mostly seen an increase. Although there was a dip recorded in 2021, the county has witnessed annual growth ever since," she explained. "Generally speaking, American counties have expanded by about 0.4%; this holds true even for San Diego County, which faced a deficit due to domestic out-migration.
To long-standing demographer William Frey, the trends highlighted by the latest census data offer a glimpse of things to come—while also indicating that there’s a solution preventing potential population decline.
From a numerical perspective, if you aim to prevent your population from declining even more, immigration serves as somewhat of a miraculous solution," stated Frey from the Brookings Institution. "The topic of immigration policy within the U.S. is among the most contentious issues out there. Thus, my hope is that these statistics will aid individuals in grasping the significance of maintaining moderate levels of immigration, particularly since forecasts indicate that our nation’s growth rate will significantly decelerate in coming years due to an aging populace and fewer birthrates compared to previous times.
This prediction holds true for both San Diego specifically and California overall, where the population increased by 0.6% last year. This growth was solely due to an influx of 361,057 new immigrants, far outweighing the over 239,000 residents who left the state for other locations.
The Union-Tribune staff writers Kristina Davis and Alexandra Mendoza, along with demographer Beth Jarosz from the Population Reference Bureau, provided contributions for this report.
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