According to current polling data, assessments of each contender’s viability, and taking into account the flow of their debate performances, three key figures have surfaced as frontrunners leading up to the upcoming presidential runoff set for May. These include Crin Antonescu representing the governing alliance, George Simion from the extreme right-wing party AUR, and Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan who is campaigning independently yet anticipates backing from centrist supporters, potentially drawing votes away from both the center-left Liberals (PNL) and progressive Reformists (USR).
Out of the two candidates have a higher chance of advancing to the next round; however, predicting the result of the initial vote at this juncture would be speculative.
Although Crin Antonescu appears to be trailing behind his competitors, he gains an advantage from the backing of the local networks affiliated with the two major established parties—the PSD and PNL. Even though segments within both the Liberal and Social Democratic parties seem unenthusiastic about Antonescu’s bid, this endorsement still represents a considerable strength. In contrast to the previous year’s election, where multiple candidates were fielded, the current governing alliance—strengthened now by inclusion of the Hungarian party UDMR—has presented just one nominee. This unified choice might not have been every member’s top pick within the coalition, yet it could prove to be a more viable contender overall.
George Simion anticipates leveraging the voter base of pro-Russian figure Calin Georgescu, who has shown significant backing with over 40% support in recent surveys. Nonetheless, this could potentially lower his own visibility and performance, as Georgescu’s following might not be as extensive or engaged as thought. Despite these factors, many still consider Simion a contender for the runoff election.
The mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, entered the election fray right away when the poll from last year got cancelled. Running independently within the center-right segment, his career includes both solid administration skills and notable political accomplishments. Consequently, following the previous year’s municipal and European elections, he became essentially the chief figurehead of the democratic resistance movement. Nonetheless, despite being one of the founders of the pro-reform United Social Democrats (USR), this organization did not manage to secure his return—had they succeeded, it might well have altered the trajectory of the recent presidential contest held between November and December.
A notable contender is USR President Elena Lasconi, aiming to leverage the strong performance she achieved in the invalidated vote last November where she placed second behind the isolationist candidate Calin Georgescu (who is now barred from contesting due to allegations of manipulating the election process).
The registration period for candidates concluded on March 15, with the clearance process conducted by the Constitutional Court coming to an end on March 19.
On March 19, Anamaria Gavrila — another candidate supported by Calin Georgescu, apart from AUR's George Simion — withdrew from the election after receiving clearance from the Constitutional Court.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Cateyeperspective/Dreamstime.com )
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